Stats experts reveal how Premier League table should look after six games, using expected goals

Real points total: 3
Expected goals points total: 3.48

Monday, September 25, 2017

We are six weeks into the Premier League season, and the table is taking a familiar shape.

The two Manchester clubs, City and United, sit level at the top having yet to lose a game, with Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool rounding out the top five.

There are some surprises, with Watford and newly-promoted Huddersfield flying high, and few would have suggested the relegation places would be filled by Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and West Ham.

But, is the real table backed up by the stats?

Using expected goals – which you can learn about here – you can discover how the table should look, if every team scored and conceded the clearest chances in every game.

For example, Palace, who have yet to score this season, have an expected goals total (xG) of 6.92. This means they should have scored around seven goals, and highlights just how bad they have been at finishing chances even though they are creating them.

Every match of the season is reviewed to create an xG result for both teams, and a Premier League table is created using the expected points total from every game played so far.

So, how should the table look, using expected goals? Click the right arrow, above, to find out…


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